Countries at the Crossroads 2010

Since 2006 Honduras has crossed into dangerous territory due to political ineffectiveness and an inability to deepen democratic institutions. While fragile social movements and members of the international community seek to promote civic engagement and the rule of law, President José Manuel Zelaya Rosales and other politicians have contributed to the deterioration of stability, relying on populism and responding inadequately to challenges from international organized crime networks and persistent poverty.

During Honduras's transition from military rule to representative democracy over the last 30 years, governance has been affected by pressures from business interests, traditional political elites, the military, and deeply entrenched wealthy families seeking to preserve their position by opposing reforms or ensuring their ineffectiveness. The destabilizing power of transnational organized crime and widespread violence also now envelop the country: killings, extortion, and kidnappings have become everyday problems. Moreover, an ineffective and corrupt judicial system puts Honduras on a path to further insecurity by creating high levels of impunity and destroying confidence in the authorities.

Honduras entered a long period of military rule in 1963, as officers led by General Oswaldo López Arellano deposed President Ramón Villeda Morales in a bloody coup. López governed until 1971, but after a brief interlude of civilian rule, the military reclaimed power in a second coup in 1972. The military leadership represented a new class of entrepreneurial and political elites, as both active and retired officers leveraged their access to resources and information to create businesses that competed with traditional commercial powers. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, the military grew into a powerful economic force, with officers becoming major landholders and players in key industries such as telecommunications and banking.

The changing geopolitical landscape in the early 1980s eventually led to the end of military rule. In 1982 Honduras approved a new constitution, followed by the democratic election of President Roberto Suazo Córdoba. The transition to democratic governance gave traditional, nonmilitary business elites an opportunity to reenter politics, and the free-market economic policies of the 1990s provided additional avenues for their renewed assertion of influence.

Honduran social movements also played an important role in the transition from military rule. Membership-driven groups including labor unions, peasant organizations, and indigenous movements were active in the 1980s and early 1990s, but they soon gave way to more professional nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) that were better poised to secure international aid. The devastation caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998 played a key role in NGO sector expansion, as civil society stepped in to fill the gaps left by an ineffective government response.[1] It is estimated that at the beginning of the 1990s, only about 125 NGOs were operating in Honduras, but by 2001 nearly 5,000 NGOs had been created.[2]

While the holding of democratic elections, improvements in respect for human rights, and the development of civil society since the end of military rule represent substantial advances, much work remains to be done. The autonomy and effectiveness of the government has been compromised by the power of private interests, a weak bureaucracy, drug traffickers, and a two-party system that is unwilling to renovate its leadership. Moreover, corruption is pervasive, manifesting itself through bribes and the intimidation of judges, as well as low accountability for abuses of authority by public officials.

Under President Zelaya the country has faced renewed polarization and poor policy performance. In 2008 and early 2009, Zelaya deepened political divisions, including within his own party, and pitted factions of the business and political elite against one another through increasingly populist posturing. According to many observers, his rhetorical alignment with Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez has decreased his popularity in civil society and incited anger among Honduras's ruling classes and business community. In March 2008, Honduras joined Chávez's Petrocaribe program, giving it access to Venezuelan oil at preferential rates, and in July it was announced that Honduras would join the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA), a leftist regional economic integration body led by Chávez. Honduras was a strong U.S. ally during the Cold War, and the mentalities of that era are still pervasive in the country, allowing Zelaya to create rifts that can be used to his advantage. However, many feel that increased aid from Venezuela only provides more opportunities for impunity and corruption, as Chávez has reportedly stated that he will not demand the same degree of transparency as other donors, such as the United States.[3]

Honduras has one of the highest poverty rates in the region; within the country, the highest rates are found in rural areas, where about half the population lives. Honduras ranked 117 out of 179 countries in the United Nations Development Programme's 2008 Human Development Index. Moreover, according to a report released by the World Food Programme, a wave of global food price increases caused Honduras's poverty rate to rise from 69 percent in September 2007 to 73 percent in June 2008.[4] Nearly one million Hondurans work abroad and support their families through remittances, sending back a total of US$2.8 billion in 2008.

Honduras also suffers from one of the highest homicide rates in the region, with rampant crime attributed to criminal groups such as drug cartels and affiliated youth gangs. In 2008, there were 57.9 murders per 100,000 inhabitants.[5] While the government has adopted an "iron fist" approach to homicides, it focuses mostly on youth gang violence, making membership in a gang punishable by up to 30 years in prison and using the military to conduct raids and help maintain order in major cities.  Fewer efforts have been made to curb the powerful influence of crime networks linked to Colombian, Honduran, and Mexican drug traffickers that use the territory as a transshipment point, partly due to lack of capacity and corruption within the security institutions. These shortcomings have led to abuses by security personnel, especially the police, including extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrests, and illegal searches. Honduran youth in particular have become victims of strict antigang campaigns reminiscent of the army's violent street recruitment raids of the 1980s.