Countries at the Crossroads 2007

In recent years Libya has succeeded in ending its isolation and transforming itself from a pariah state into a full member of the international community. Colonel Muammar Qadhafi’s announcement in December 2003 that he would abandon his weapons of mass destruction programs was a major step forward in this respect. It opened the way for the resumption of bilateral relations with the United States and the lifting of international sanctions. In May 2006 Libya was finally removed from the U.S. state sponsors of terrorism list, marking its full rehabilitation.

This new international climate raised hopes that the Libyan regime would take the opportunity to engage in domestic reforms that would bring the country more in line with international standards. This was partly prompted by a new reformist discourse adopted by some parts of the regime, which called for economic transformation and flagged issues such as human rights and respect for the rule of law. However, while there have been some tentative steps in the field of economic reform, political change has remained largely off the agenda. Colonel Qadhafi has shown no willingness to alter the fundamentals of the Libyan political system, the Jamahiriyah (State of the Masses). Political parties are banned, and there are no genuinely independent civil society organizations. While there has been an easing in recent years whereby the regime is allowing some degree of criticism of certain aspects of the government and is encouraging former dissidents to return to the country, anyone daring openly to challenge the regime or the Libyan state is in danger of arrest, torture, and imprisonment. As a result there is no real opposition movement in the country.

The Jamahiriyah, introduced by Qadhafi a few years after the revolution of 1969, is a highly personalized and idiosyncratic political system. It is based on a mixture of Arab nationalism, socialism, and Islam, and through it Qadhafi has been able to impose his own ideology on the population and ensure complete uniformity and control. Indeed, despite the formal mechanisms of government, Qadhafi and his hand-picked clique of advisers are the real powerbrokers in the country. Qadhafi has been able to maintain power for so long though his ability to manipulate these informal power networks, a complex hierarchy of security structures and the country’s tribal alliances. He has also come increasingly to rely on his own family and members of his own tribe, the Qadhadfa, to shore up his regime.

Although there have been some attempts to open up Libya’s tightly controlled economy, private-sector activity remains limited, and bureaucracy is still highly problematic. Corruption is also a major problem, not only through the payment of bribes but also because much of Libyan life still hinges on personal and tribal connections. In addition, the country is still blighted by persistent socioeconomic challenges, such as unemployment and housing shortages. Although there are signs that the regime, or certain parts of it at least, are making serious efforts to deal with some of these issues, the enormous scope of the challenge makes meaningful reform extremely difficult to implement.