Study: Slow and Uneven Progress in Balkan Democratization

Democracy and the rule of law are making slow and uneven progress in the Balkans, according to a new Freedom House report issued Friday at an international conference in Belgrade, Serbia.

Although the report, Nations in Transit 2004, documents several years of modest improvements in the Balkans in key areas of democratic reform, it also points to an array of fundamental challenges and obstacles that still stand in the way, especially weak rule of law and pervasive corruption.

At the conference, which focused on Balkan strategies for Euro-Atlantic integration, Freedom House also called on government leaders in the region to:

• Transcend regional differences to pursue coordinated strategies designed to accelerate and deepen democratization through integration into Western institutions.
• Invite greater input and involvement from civil society and the media on key reform issues and processes.
• Encourage political parties of the Right and Left to publicly state or renew their commitments to democratic reform.
• Lack of stability and transparency in government.
• Resurgent appeal of extremism and ultra-nationalism.
• Weak protections for the rights of ethnic and minority groups.
• Media whose editorial policies are subject to excessive political and economic pressures.
• Civil society sectors that are unable to sustain their activities absent external donor support
• Low government receptivity to citizen participation and civic input into policy development processes

"As Nations in Transit makes clear, the countries of the Balkans already have shown significant capacity for democratic change," said Freedom House executive director Jennifer Windsor. "Democratically elected governments are in power across the region, and increasingly vibrant civil society and media sectors are affecting policy and giving voice to the public's needs."

"But much remains to be done to consolidate these hard-won gains," said Ms. Windsor. "Especially in the post-September 11 and post-European Union enlargement world, in which Western attention is turned elsewhere, the countries of the Balkans will be challenged to drive their own reform strategies. If the Balkans want to join the institutions of the West, it will be up to them to make significant progress in building accountable, transparent democratic institutions based on the rule of law."

The Nations in Transit 2004 reports on the Balkan countries are available online.

A set of Nations in Transit 2004 charts and graphs are available.

Nations in Transit 2004: The ratings

The Nations in Transit survey, produced annually, provides comprehensive analysis of transitions in 27 post-Communist countries by tracking progress and setbacks in electoral processes; civil society; independent media; governance; corruption; and constitutional, legislative and judicial frameworks. It also provides a unique set of comparative ratings based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic development, and 7 the lowest.

Summary of Progress and Setbacks

Overall, the study, which covers the period January 1 through December 31, 2003, illustrates more progress throughout the region in the areas of electoral process, civil society, and independent media than in building transparent government institutions based on the rule of law. The majority of ratings improvements documented in Nations in Transit 2004 were confined to countries in the Balkans.* The majority of setbacks in ratings were experienced in the non-Baltic countries of the former Soviet Union. The eight countries joining the European Union on May 1 held steady, remaining the highest-ranking countries in the study.

Electoral process
(+) Three countries (2 of which are in the Balkans) experienced ratings improvements for electoral process: Bosnia, Bulgaria, and Estonia.
(-) Six countries experienced declines in electoral process: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, and Ukraine.

Civil society
(+) Seven countries (5 of which are in the Balkans) showed gains for civil society: Albania, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Georgia, Macedonia, Romania, and Slovakia.
(-) Five countries experienced setbacks for civil society: Azerbaijan, Belarus, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine.

Independent media
(+) Three countries (1 of which is in the Balkans) experienced improvements for independent media: Albania, Estonia, and Latvia.
- Transcend regional differences to pursue coordinated strategies designed to accelerate and deepen democratization through integration into Western institutions.
(-) Seven countries (1 of which is in the Balkans) showed declines in independent media: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Macedonia, Moldova, Russia, and Slovakia.

Governance
(+) Four countries (2 of which are in the Balkans) showed progress in their ratings for governance: Bosnia, Macedonia, Slovenia, and Tajikistan.
(-) Five countries showed regression in their ratings for governance: Georgia, Moldova, Russia, Ukraine, and Turkmenistan.

Constitutional, legislative, and judicial framework
(+) Four countries (3 of which are in the Balkans) had ratings improvements in this category: Bosnia, Bulgaria, Latvia, and Macedonia.
(-) Four countries (1 of which is in the Balkans) experienced setbacks in their ratings for this category: Azerbaijan, Croatia, Russia, and Ukraine.

Corruption
(+) Only two countries, both of which are in the Balkans, showed improvements in their ratings for corruption: Bosnia and Macedonia.
(-) Five countries (1 of which is in the Balkans) showed regression in their ratings for corruption: Albania, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan.

Nations in Transit 2004: The State of the Balkans

In the Balkans region, the Freedom House data illustrates the gains that have been made in terms of increased civil society activism, more representative electoral processes, and the growth of a more independent media; however the country reports found in Nations in Transit 2004 also suggest numerous obstacles that must be addressed for democratization to progress further in the region:

Pervasive corruption at all levels of society and government.

A country-by-country highlight of progress and setbacks during the reporting period follows below:

Albania. Local government elections in October 2003 were a major event in Albania. Although the ruling Socialist Party (SP) sustained its majority, the opposition made significant gains. Hopes that these elections would mark the beginning of a tradition of free and fair electoral processes were seriously disappointed owing to widespread irregularities with voter lists in the country's major cities. Violations in election administration in the capital, Tirana, were documented in one-third of the city's voting centers. The destabilizing effect caused by the elections was compounded by the failure of Prime Minister Fatos Nano to fill ministerial vacancies in his government. The crisis resulted from an ongoing power struggle within the SP between Nano and former Socialist premier Ilir Meta. This brought reforms to a halt and jeopardized Albania's negotiation of a Stabilization and Association Agreement with the EU. Civil society displayed some improvement in 2003 in its ability to raise awareness of important issues. In addition, the media offered fair and balanced coverage of the local election campaign. On a negative note, corruption and organized crime appeared to be on the rise in 2003.

Bosnia-Herzegovina. New governments were constituted in 2003 at the state level and in the two entities, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) and the Serb Republic, following general elections in 2002. The three dominant national parties took power in a coalition with several smaller parties after months of protracted talks and the rejection by the Office of the High Representative of a number of candidates for ministerial positions. The new governments were only partly effective during their first year in office but performed better than earlier coalitions of the three nationalist parties. The OHR imposed major reforms in 2003, including the creation of a joint command for the two entity armies; the creation of a state-level intelligence agency; and other steps to strengthen state government. The creation of a countrywide value-added tax and the merger of the entity-level customs agencies were approved in December 2003. Other highlights from the year include the unification of schools in ethnically mixed areas of the FBiH; the introduction of statewide textbooks that reduced nationalist myths and stereotypes; the appointment of new judges and prosecutors as part of substantial process to reform the judiciary; and improvements in exposing corruption.

Bulgaria. The year 2003 in Bulgaria was marked by closer movement toward membership in NATO and the EU; free and fair elections for municipal mayors and councils (the first elections in the country held without international observers); the enhanced activity and impact of nonprofit civic organizations on the legislative process; and the passage of a constitutional amendment designed to improve transparency and accountability for members of the judiciary and to more fully empower this branch of government. However, greater attention is still needed to reforming the judiciary and to fighting corruption and organized crime. Better efforts are also needed to bring the public back to politics, to reestablish its trust in democratic institutions, and to relegitimize politics as a tool for making societal decisions.

Croatia. The year 2003 began on a sour note, with EU officials discouraging the Racan government from applying for membership. However, Croatia submitted its application anyway and ultimately improved its chances of being invited to negotiate for membership. Key to Croatia's sudden progress was the government's mobilization of political and diplomatic support, including that of the now reformed Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), for integration with Western institutions in general and EU membership in particular. This, in turn, suggested to EU officials that Croatia might be able to succeed in meeting its key political conditions for opening membership talks: cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia, judicial reform, and minority Serb returns. Despite this victory at the international level, the Croatian public's displeasure with the slow pace of domestic reforms led to the Racan government's ouster in November parliamentary elections and the surprising return to power of the HDZ. Serious problems in the judiciary remained insufficiently addressed, and only time will reveal the efficacy of the numerous reforms undertaken during the year.

Macedonia. Macedonia experienced notable forward movement in 2003. Increased external donor support has helped improve organizational capacity for civil society groups and enhanced the involvement of local NGOs in the postconflict development of the country. Many organizations have been actively involved in solving pertinent societal problems, most notably in the area of interethnic relations. In the area of governance, Macedonia underwent the most significant changes since the country gained independence with the initiation of a gradual process of decentralization. Likewise, important progress was made in the passage of legislation regarding representation for national minorities, the use of minority languages, and the protection of citizensrights before state institutions. The fight against corruption also received a boost, with the introduction of important legislative reforms and the establishment of the Anticorruption Commission. In the area of independent media, the expansion of the criminal character of libel in 2003 was a decidedly negative development.

Romania. In 2003 Romania held a national referendum on constitutional reforms associated with the country's accession to the European Union. Although allegations of fraud during the referendum raised concerns about the prospect for similar irregularities in the 2004 parliamentary elections, the revised Constitution contains a number of improvements. These include a more liberal approach to minority languages, guarantees for an independent judiciary, and better protection of property rights. The growing strength and activism of civil society was noted in 2003, particularly with regard to cooperation on EU accession efforts between NGOs and the governmental Department of European Integration. The Romanian print media scored a victory in 2003 in exposing alleged high-level corruption. At the same time, though, there is growing concern about violence against and restrictions on local journalists investigating corruption and abuses of power at the local level. Self-censorship remains prevalent in the electronic media, as well as in the print media at the local level.

Serbia and Montenegro (including Kosovo). The year 2003 was marked by several notable developments indicating the continued weakness of democratic institutions and practices in Serbia and Montenegro. In Serbia, three key events marked the year. First, the murder on March 12 of Serbias prime minister, Zoran Djindjic, allegedly by the Zemun gang (an organized crime group created by members of the Milosevic-era secret service), received global attention and highlighted the extent to which corruption pervades the region's post-Communist states and challenges the establishment of stable democratic governments. Second, in the wake of the Djindjic assassination, civic freedoms and liberties, including freedom of the press, were constrained during a state of emergency that lasted more than a month. And third, the strong showing of the Serbian Radical Party (SRS)a Milosevic ally during the 1990sin early parliamentary elections on December 28 demonstrated the continued appeal of extreme nationalism among sizable sectors of the population. In Montenegro, the situation was not altogether different in 2003, with allegations of high-level wrongdoing marking the year and reinforcing concerns about the status of democratic reforms in this former Yugoslav republic as well. Both Serbia and Montenegro failed in 2003 to adopted constitutional reforms mandated under the new Constitutional Charter.

Nevertheless, 2003 was not without bright spots. Both Serbia and Montenegro adopted new legislation that provides better protections for the independence and freedom of the media. In June, the union-level Council of Ministers unilaterally abolished visa requirements for travelers from over 40 countries, with Croatia notably among them. The move was seen as a significant sign of thawing in relations between Serbia and Croatia. In October, the so-called Belgrade-Pristina dialogue was convened by the international community, gathering heads of Kosovo and Serbia and Montenegro institutions to address problems including: transport and communication, energy, missing persons, and return. In addition, the government of Serbia set up the state's first court for war crimes, while a county court concluded the latest war crimes case (the Podujevo case), in which a member of a special police unit was sentenced to 20 years in prison for crimes that included the killing of 14 Albanians in 1999. Finally, Serbia and Montenegro were jointly admitted into the Council of Europe on April 3.

Kosovo. With substantial international aid and intervention, Kosovo has managed since 1999 to develop a government, a banking system, local police, a judiciary, and other institutions found in democratic societies. Nevertheless, tremendous challenges remain. These include ensuring minority and human rights, the protection and free movement of ethnic Serbs, and the return of displaced persons; resolving residential property issues; tackling high unemployment; privatizing state enterprises; and combating organized crime, corruption, and political violence. Despite the positive introduction of the standards for Kosovo and the opening of official dialogue with Serbia, significant obstacles like these still stand in the way of fulfilling the conditions that will lead to the opening of talks on the resolution of Kosovo's status.

* In Nations in Transit 2004, Freedom House introduces separate ratings for Serbia, Montenegro, and Kosovo in order to provide a clearer picture of processes and conditions in the three different territories. Doing so does not indicate a position on the part of Freedom House regarding the territorial integrity of the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro; neither does it indicate a position on Kosovo's future status. A new Nations in Transit report on Kosovo is presented as an addendum to the report on Serbia and Montenegro.

Owing to the new ratings, for which there is no basis of comparison with previous years, this summary of ratings improvements and setbacks does not include Serbia, Montenegro, and Kosovo. However, ratings tables in the appendix provide historical ratings data for Yugoslavia along with the new ratings.